State/National/WorldFish Rap

Ocean Salmon Forecast for 2022

CALIFORNIA一 In a virtual meeting held on March 2, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife heard from a panel of scientists and other experts about ocean salmon’s 2022 ocean abundance protection.


Estimates show an increase in ocean salmon compared to 2021, but the numbers are still well below historical averages.


Sacramento River fall Chinooks are estimated at 396,500 for adult salmon, and Klamath River fall Chinooks are estimated at 200,100 adult salmon.


The estimates were put together by state and federal fishery scientists and predicted the abundance of adult salmon in California’s oceans.


They are used to determine ocean salmon fishing regulations and ensure the conservation of the species.


Preliminary guidance proposed by the National Marine Fisheries Service suggests a continued prohibition of coho retention.


It constrains council fisheries when combined with freshwater fisheries to a total exploitation rate (ER) on Rogue and Klamath coho salmon hatchery stocks to no more than 15 percent, except that the Trinity River population would be limited separately to a total ER of 16 percent.

For Coastal Chinook salmon, NMFS recommends that the council push for a 40 percent buffer on the preseason target ocean harvest rate (preseason targets that will achieve postseason attainment of 16 percent given the pattern of recent model performance).


The Pacific Fisheries Marine Council will hold a public hearing on March 22 to hear comments from the public on the three California ocean salmon fishery regulatory alternatives which were set to be adopted during the March 14 meeting.


The PFMC will make final regulatory measures during their April 6-13 meeting in Seattle, Wash. Regulations for the 2022 season for ocean salmon fisheries starting before May 16 will be finalized in March, while fisheries open after May 16 will be decided during the April meeting. For more information, see

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